Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a Medio-Lungo Termine della Spesa Farmaceutica[Testing Hypotheses at the basis of Medium-Long Term Projections of Pharmaceutical Expenditure]

We use the same methodology, that Ecofin-Oecd apply for projecting expenditure in the medium-long term, to reconstruct expenditure in the medium-long past. It is possible to compare the effective expenditure with the reconstructed one. The effective expenditure is of course influenced by policy and also by problems and inefficiencies on the market for pharmaceuticals production and retail distribution, while the reconstructed expenditure can be considered net of these influences. If we believe that Ecofin-Oecd methodology is valid, this exercise offers us the possibility to evaluate the difference between the effective expenditure and a reconstructed expenditure that may jet light on the pharmaceutical needs, i.e. the theoretical expenditure that would entirely satisfy population needs in the absence of truncations. Several conclusions can be traced for the policy, and several insights can also be argued about the governance of Italian public pharmaceutical expenditure over the last 20 years. Nicola Carmine Salerno, FFM, 22 October 2013, nicola.salerno@tin.it