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Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a Medio-Lungo Termine della Spesa Farmaceutica
[Testing Hypotheses at the basis of Medium-Long Term Projections of Pharmaceutical Expenditure]

Author

Listed:
  • SALERNO, Nicola Carmine

Abstract

We use the same methodology, that Ecofin-Oecd apply for projecting expenditure in the medium-long term, to reconstruct expenditure in the medium-long past. It is possible to compare the effective expenditure with the reconstructed one. The effective expenditure is of course influenced by policy and also by problems and inefficiencies on the market for pharmaceuticals production and retail distribution, while the reconstructed expenditure can be considered net of these influences. If we believe that Ecofin-Oecd methodology is valid, this exercise offers us the possibility to evaluate the difference between the effective expenditure and a reconstructed expenditure that may jet light on the pharmaceutical needs, i.e. the theoretical expenditure that would entirely satisfy population needs in the absence of truncations. Several conclusions can be traced for the policy, and several insights can also be argued about the governance of Italian public pharmaceutical expenditure over the last 20 years. Nicola Carmine Salerno, FFM, 22 October 2013, nicola.salerno@tin.it

Suggested Citation

  • SALERNO, Nicola Carmine, 2013. "Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a Medio-Lungo Termine della Spesa Farmaceutica
    [Testing Hypotheses at the basis of Medium-Long Term Projections of Pharmaceutical Expenditure]
    ," MPRA Paper 50884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50884
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50884/1/MPRA_paper_50884.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    projections; medium-long term projections; pharma; pharmaceutical; pharmaceuticals; public finance; sustainability; adequacy; welfare; welfare system; Italy; Oecd; Ocse; Ecofin; Awg; Ageing Working Group; Gdp; proiezioni; Ragioneria Generale dello Stato; Spesa Sociale; SSN; sistema sanitari; spesa sanitaria; spesa farmaceutica; copayment; multipillar; multipilastro; pharmacy; pharmacies; distribuzione; drug; drugs; nicola c. salerno; nicola carmine salerno; nc salerno; nicola.salerno@tin.it; scienza delle finanze; structural reform; structural reforms; expenditure profile; expenditure profiles; profili di spesa per età; demografia; invecchiamento; crescita; sviluppo; salute; Ministero della Salute; Ministero del Tesoro; Dipartimento del Tesoro; estimation; reforming process; Europe; International Monetary Fund; Roma; Via San Remo;

    JEL classification:

    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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