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S&P 500 returns revisited

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  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predicted by the original model, however. The rally will end in March/April 2010 and the S&P 500 level will be decreasing into 2011. This prediction should validate the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2010. "S&P 500 returns revisited," MPRA Paper 21733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21733
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan O. KITOV, 2009. "The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita In Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    2. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2007. "Exact prediction of S&P 500 returns," MPRA Paper 6056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    S&P 500; returns; prediction; population pyramid; GDP;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design

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