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The Industrial Curvature Index A Geometric Framework for Regional Recession Resilience and Adjustment Speed: Evidence from 3,115 U.S. Counties, 2001–2024

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  • Villines, Gregory

Abstract

I introduce the Industrial Curvature Index (ICI), a geometric measure of how distinctive a county’s industrial composition is from that of its geographic neighbors. ICI is constructed by representing each county-quarter as a point on the simplex of NAICS supersector employment shares, equipping the simplex with the Fisher–Rao information metric, and computing time-averaged Ollivier–Ricci curvature on the Census-defined county adjacency graph. High ICI corresponds to counties embedded in tightly coupled regional clusters; low ICI to counties whose industrial composition is structurally distinctive from their neighbors’. The principal empirical finding is that ICI is a strong and robust predictor of cross-county heterogeneity in recession-trough employment loss. Across 3,115 retained U.S. counties from 2001 through 2024, a one-standard-deviation increase in ICI corresponds to a 4.86 percentage-point deeper 2008–2009 employment trough (β = −4.86, HC3 p

Suggested Citation

  • Villines, Gregory, 2026. "The Industrial Curvature Index A Geometric Framework for Regional Recession Resilience and Adjustment Speed: Evidence from 3,115 U.S. Counties, 2001–2024," MPRA Paper 128975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:128975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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