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Modelling GDP for Sudan using ARIMA

Author

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  • Moahmed Hassan, Hisham
  • Haleeb, Amin

Abstract

This paper aims to obtain an appropriate ARIMA model for the Sudan GDP using the Box- Jenkins methodology during the period 1960-2018 the various ARIMA models with different order of autoregressive and moving-average terms were compared. The appropriate model for Sudan is an ARIMA (1,1,1), the results of an in-sample forecast showed that the relative and predicted values were within the range of 5%, and the forecasting effectiveness of this model, its relatively adequate and efficient in modeling the annual GDP of the Sudan.

Suggested Citation

  • Moahmed Hassan, Hisham & Haleeb, Amin, 2020. "Modelling GDP for Sudan using ARIMA," MPRA Paper 101207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101207
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ning, Wei & Kuan-jiang, Bian & Zhi-fa, Yuan, 2010. "Analysis and Forecast of Shaanxi GDP Based on the ARIMA Model," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 2(01), pages 1-4, January.
    2. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, December.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    5. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Univariate Stationary Processes," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis, edition 2, chapter 2, pages 27-93, Springer.
    6. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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