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Welfare implications of national debt in a OLG model with endogenous fertility

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  • Luciano fanti
  • Luca Spataro

Abstract

In the present work we show that, when one allows for endogenous fertility in Diamonds (1965) OLG model, public debt plays still a clear-cut role on dynamic inefficiency (DI): for correcting DI, national debt must be increased. DI is more likely to occur when the economy capital income share and the preference for children are sufficiently low and the degree of patience is sufficiently high. However, differently from Diamond's case, DI turns out to be a necessary but not a su¢cient condition for welfare improvements to obtain via debt increases, since, in presence of endogenous fertility, the optimal level of debt is typically lower than the one associated to the traditional Golden Rule. Hence, not taking fertility choices into account would lead policymakers to overshoot the target, i.e. to issue too high a level of national debt. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the optimal level of debt is higher the lower the capital share, the higher individuals' degree of patience, the bigger the child rearing cost and the lower the preference for children. On policy grounds we argue that for debt tightening policies to be optimal in the long run, it is necessary that the cost of rearing children does not increase (or, if anything, reduces).

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano fanti & Luca Spataro, 2004. "Welfare implications of national debt in a OLG model with endogenous fertility," Discussion Papers 2004/35, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2004/35
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    File URL: http://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2004-35.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Child policy solutions for the unemployment problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 147-149, December.
    2. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Endogenous Lifetime in an Overlapping-Generations Small Open Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 121-152, June.
    4. Marco Guerrazzi, 2005. "Notes on Continuous Dynamic Models: the Benhabib-Farmer Condition for Indeterminacy," Discussion Papers 2005/54, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2011. "On economic growth and minimum wages," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 59-82, May.
    6. Manuela Gussoni - Andrea Mangani, 2009. "The impact of public funding for innovation on firms' R&D investments: Do R&D cooperation and appropriability matter?," Discussion Papers 2009/90, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Lorenzo Corsini & Elisabetta Olivieri, 2008. "Technological Change and the Wage Differential between Skilled and Unskilled Workers: Evidence from Italy," Discussion Papers 2008/73, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous fertility, family policy and multiple equilibria," Discussion Papers 2009/79, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of health and child policies," Discussion Papers 2009/91, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Maurizio Lisciandra, 2007. "The Role of Reciprocating Behaviour in Contract Choice," Discussion Papers 2007/65, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2008. "PAYG pensions and economic cycles: exogenous versus endogenous fertility," Discussion Papers 2008/75, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping Generations; endogenous fertility; dynamic inefficiency; debt;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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