Transition to a Market Economy and Export Performance in Vietnam

This paper examines Vietnam’s export performance in the process of economic transition. The key theme of analysis is the complementary role of domestic policy shifts and the ongoing changes in world trade patterns in determining trends and patterns of exports. The analysis yields clear evidence that when market forces are unleashed, albeit in a constrained fashion, specialisation patterns assert themselves as predicted by the received trade theory. On the contrary, there is no evidence to suggest that the state-mediated attempts in the early stage of reforms to mould the emerging patterns of manufacturing exports had any tangible effect. Vietnam’s export performance looks impressive, particularly when we take into account the nature of the reform process, and the constraining effects of the US trade embargo during the first decade of reforms and the historic overwhelming reliance on the Soviet-block markets.