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Mathematical Models and Economic Forecasting: Some Uses and Mis-Uses of Mathematics in Economics

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  • David Hendry

Abstract

We consider three 'cases studies' of the uses and mis-uses of mathematics in economics and econometrics. The first concerns economic forecasting, where a mathematical analysis is essential, and is independent of the specific forecasting model and how the process being forecast behaves. The second concerns model selection with more candidate variables than the number of observations. Again, an understanding of the properties of extended general-to-specific procedures is impossible without advanced mathematical analysis. The third concerns inter-temporal optimization and the formation of 'rational expectations', where misleading results follow from present mathematical approaches for realistic economies. The appropriate mathematics remains to be developed, and may end 'problem specific' rather than generic.

Suggested Citation

  • David Hendry, 2011. "Mathematical Models and Economic Forecasting: Some Uses and Mis-Uses of Mathematics in Economics," Economics Series Working Papers 530, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:530
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:73aa3c92-be06-4119-9f4c-e8eedb8b637a
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    Keywords

    Economic forecasting; structural breaks; model selection; expectations; impulse-indicator saturation; mathematical analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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