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Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

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  • Sobotka, Tomas
  • Jasilioniene, Aiva
  • Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza
  • Zeman, Kryštof
  • Nemeth, Laszlo
  • Jdanov, Dmitri

Abstract

Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research, based on new Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations (STFF) data series (https://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/stff.php), embedded in the Human Fertility Database (HFD), shows the initial signs of the expected “birth recession”. Monthly number of births in many countries fell sharply between October 2020 and the most recent month observed, often bringing about a clear reversal of the previous trend. Across 17 countries with lower fluctuations in births, the number of births fell on average by 5.1% in November 2020, 6.5% in December 2020 and 8.9% in January 2021 when compared with the same month of the previous year. Spain sustained the sharpest drop in the number of births among the analysed countries, with the number of births plummeting by 20% in December 2020 and January 2021. The combined effect of rising mortality and falling birth rates is disrupting the balance of births and deaths in many countries, pushing natural population increase to record low levels in 2020 and 2021.

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  • Sobotka, Tomas & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Galarza, Ainhoa Alustiza & Zeman, Kryštof & Nemeth, Laszlo & Jdanov, Dmitri, 2021. "Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series," SocArXiv mvy62, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:mvy62
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mvy62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    2. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK," SocArXiv wr9jb, Center for Open Science.
    3. Francesca Luppi & Bruno Arpino & Alessandro Rosina, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(47), pages 1399-1412.
    4. Letícia J. Marteleto & Gilvan Guedes & Raquel Z. Coutinho & Abigail Weitzman, 2020. "Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 843-872, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Barbuscia & Ariane Pailhé & Anne Solaz, 2023. "Do Income and Employment Uncertainty Affect Couple Stability? Evidence for France During the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Jasilioniene, Aiva & Jasilionis, Domantas & Jdanov, Dmitri & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2024. "Exploring associations between the Covid-19 vaccination campaign and fertility trends: A population-level analysis for 22 countries," SocArXiv 46qdw, Center for Open Science.
    3. Bernhard Hammer & Sonja Spitzer & Alexia Prskawetz, 2022. "Age-Specific Income Trends in Europe: The Role of Employment, Wages, and Social Transfers," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 525-547, July.
    4. Luca Maria Pesando & Alejandra Abufhele, 2022. "Declining Quantity and Quality of Births in Chile Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20220081, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Nov 2022.
    5. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    6. Lazzari, Ester & Reimondos, Anna & Gray, Edith, 2022. "Childbearing desires before and after the Covid-19 outbreak in Australia: Who changed their attitudes toward having a first or additional child?," SocArXiv qbgmp, Center for Open Science.
    7. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Regional trends in births during the COVID-19 crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain," SocArXiv mnwh8, Center for Open Science.

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