Modeling Demographic Growth in Russia: Factors, Mechanisms, Reserves

A demographic crisis is a significant challenge for the long-term development of any country, impacting various aspects of society: from the economy to culture and security. In Russia, the issue of population decline is particularly acute due to the vast territories that could be lost if the negative demographic trend is not addressed. This article aims to model demographic growth in Russia and identify the potential for population increase through the analysis of three key factors: age, period, and cohort effects. These factors, which combine both tangible and intangible influences, provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing Russia's demographic future. This goal determined the main hypothesis of the study: we believe that by addressing all the factors contributing to demographic growth, we can create conditions that will reverse the current trend of population decline in the country. In the long term, we aim to achieve the goal announced by political leaders – to double the population of Russia. To achieve this, the paper develops a three-stage econometric model of population growth and explores various scenarios for reaching this goal. The model calculations demonstrate that in order to double the country's population within 50 years, we need to increase the total fertility rate to between 2.85 and 3.19 and maintain it at this high level for 25-35 years. To achieve these values, it is necessary to systematically work on tangible and intangible motivation. This will help create a stable image of having many children in the minds of Russians. The effectiveness of this approach should be seen in several ways: strengthening the institution of marriage; reducing the number of abortions; lowering the average age of mothers at birth; reducing child mortality. An essential part of this comprehensive approach is increasing the welfare of the population. According to the calculations, this should be achieved by an annual growth rate of per capita GDP at the level of 2.5-5.5%. The study confirmed the hypothesis that population growth is possible in the country, although it implies rather challenging scenarios for the economic and social development of the country. One such scenario is the establishment in Russian society of a conservative system of values that is typical for Eastern countries.