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Infection Rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by Geographical Units: A Model-based Estimation from Mortality Data

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  • Kulu, Hill
  • Dorey, Peter

Abstract

This study estimates cumulative infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units and investigates spatial patterns in infection rates. We propose a model-based approach to calculate cumulative infection rates from data on observed and expected deaths from Covid-19. Our analysis of mortality data shows that between 5 and 6% of people in Great Britain were infected by Covid-19 by the last third of April 2020. It is unlikely that the infection rate was lower than 3% or higher than 12%. Secondly, England had higher infection rates than Scotland and Wales, although the differences between countries were not large. Thirdly, we observed a substantial variation in virus infection rates in Great Britain by geographical units. Estimated infection rates were highest in the capital city of London where more than 10% of the population might have been infected and also in other major urban regions, while the lowest were in small towns and rural areas. Finally, spatial regression analysis showed that the virus infection rates increased with the increasing population density of the area and the level of deprivation. The results suggest that people from lower socioeconomic groups in urban areas (including those with minority backgrounds) were most affected by the spread of coronavirus in March and April.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulu, Hill & Dorey, Peter, 2020. "Infection Rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by Geographical Units: A Model-based Estimation from Mortality Data," SocArXiv 84f3e, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:84f3e
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/84f3e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allan, Rebecca & Williamson, Paul & Kulu, Hill, 2019. "Gendered mortality differentials over the rural-urban continuum: The analysis of census linked longitudinal data from England and Wales," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 68-78.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kausik Chaudhuri & Anindita Chakrabarti & Jose Martin Lima & Joht Singh Chandan & Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay, 2020. "The interaction of ethnicity and deprivation on COVID-19 mortality risk: A retrospective ecological study," Discussion Papers 20-22, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    2. Peter Congdon, 2021. "COVID-19 Mortality in English Neighborhoods: The Relative Role of Socioeconomic and Environmental Factors," J, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Claudia Masferrer & Oscar Rodríguez Chávez, 2022. "Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 367-390.

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