Violence and International Migration in Illiberal Times: The Case of El Salvador’s Authoritarian Transformation

Across a new transnational wave of illiberal governance, tough-on-crime approaches to public safety and migration are growing. The case of El Salvador, in which President Nayib Bukele suspended due process protections and imprisoned suspected gang members in mass beginning in late March 2022 under a State of Exception policy, offers a window into this process. Turning to a combination of administrative datasets and cross-national surveys, we show that despite tremendous public approval for President Bukele’s strategies as the solution to a long history of persistent gang violence and international migration, violence largely reduced before he implemented the State of Exception, and Salvadorans’ migration intentions have not declined. Moreover, we find no evidence that the policy or Bukele taking office produced a particular reduction in Salvadoran migration to either the U.S. or Mexico compared to Guatemalan and Honduran migration. Nor do we uncover clear evidence that return migration to El Salvador uniquely increased, undercutting conclusions that illiberal tough-on-crime policies like El Salvador’s are likely to address “root causes” of international migration.