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Ranking State Fiscal Structures using Theory and Evidence

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  • Joe A. Stone

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Neil Bania

    (University of Oregon PPPM Department Abstract This paper offers unique rankings of the extent to which fiscal structures of U.S. states contribute to economic growth. The rankings are novel in two key respects: they are well grounded in established growth theory, in which the effect of taxes depends both on the level of taxes and on the composition of expenditures; and they are derived from actual estimates of the link between fiscal structures and economic growth. Estimates for the latter yield a growth hill, in which the incremental effect of taxes spent on productive services and infrastructure initially rises, reaches a peak, and then declines. Rankings derived from these estimates differ sharply from typical rankings based on levels of taxation alone. Two hypothetical policy experiments highlight both the growth-hill effects of tax investments in productive services and infrastructure and the short- and long-term tradeoffs in attempting to fund strong social services. JEL Categories: H2, H4, H7, E62)

Abstract

This paper offers unique rankings of the extent to which fiscal structures of U.S. states contribute to economic growth. The rankings are novel in two key respects: They are well grounded in established growth theory, in which the effect of taxes depends both on the level of taxes and on the composition of expenditures; and they are derived from actual estimates of the link between fiscal structures and economic growth. Estimates for the latter yield a growth hill, in which the incremental effect of taxes spent on productive services and infrastructure initially rises, reaches a peak, and then declines. Rankings derived from these estimates differ sharply from typical rankings based on levels of taxation alone. Two hypothetical policy experiments highlight both the growth-hill effects of tax investments in productive services and infrastructure and the short- and long-term tradeoffs in attempting to fund strong social services. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Joe A. Stone & Neil Bania, 2008. "Ranking State Fiscal Structures using Theory and Evidence," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-6, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2008-6
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    File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2008-6_Bania_Fiscal.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Randall G. Holcombe & Donald J. Lacombe, 2004. "The Effect of State Income Taxation on Per Capita Income Growth," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(3), pages 292-312, May.
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    6. Mark, Stephen T. & McGuire, Therese J. & Papke, Leslie E., 2000. "The Influence of Taxes on Employment and Population Growth: Evidence from the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 1), pages 105-24, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Rickman & Hongbo Wang, 2020. "U.S. State And Local Fiscal Policy And Economic Activity: Do We Know More Now?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 424-465, April.
    2. Gjerde, Kathy Paulson & Prescott, Peter & Rice, Jennifer, 2019. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States' Resilience Entering the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), January.
    3. John D. Merrifield & Barry W. Poulson, 2016. "A Dynamic Scoring Simulation Analysis of How TEL Design Choices Impact Government Expansion," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(2), pages 60-68, April.
    4. John Merrifield & Barry W. Poulson, 2014. "State Fiscal Policies for Budget Stabilization and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Scoring Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(1), pages 47-81, Winter.
    5. Chiara Del Bo & Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti & Emanuela Sirtori, 2011. "Additionality and regional development: are EU Structural Funds complements or substitutes of national Public Finance?," Working Papers 201101, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    taxes growth infrastructure state rankings;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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