Risk, Variety and Volatility in the Early Auto and PC Industry
The paper studies the co-evolution of industrial turbulence and financial volatility in the early phase of the US automobile industry (1900-1930) and the early phase of the US PC industry (1970-2000). In both industries, stock prices were the most volatile and idiosyncratic (compared to the general market) during the periods in which entry/exit rates, market share instability, and technological change were the strongest. Given the similarities between the early stages in the two industries, the patterns that have characterized the late evolution of automobiles provide some insights on the possible future of the PC industry.
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