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Inflation Responses to Recent Shocks: Do G7 Countries Behave Differently?

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Vogel

    (OECD)

  • Elena Rusticelli

    (OECD)

  • Pete Richardson

    (OECD)

  • Stéphanie Guichard

    (OECD)

  • Christian Gianella

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In particular it asks the question whether observed differences in policy stances could be attributed to differences in economic structures and the vulnerability of different regions to inflationary shocks coming from import prices as opposed to differences in monetary policy objectives. The main conclusion is that although there are a number of differences in the estimated impact and dynamics of commodities, import prices and exchange rates on domestic inflation, which may have contributed to differences in policy stances during the boom in commodity prices, they cannot explain them all. Réponse de l'inflation aux chocs récents : Les pays du G7 diffèrent-ils les uns des autres ? Ce papier utilise plusieurs méthodes empiriques distinctes pour examiner les différences apparentes dans l’orientation des politiques monétaires aux États-Unis et d'autres économies du G7, notamment de la zone euro, pendant la période de fortes hausses des cours du pétrole et des matières premières au premier semestre de 2008. En particulier il pose la question de l’origine des différences observées dans l’orientation des politiques : peuvent-elles être attribuées aux différences de structures économiques et à la vulnérabilité de différentes régions aux chocs inflationnistes venant des prix à l'importation ou aux différences dans les objectifs de politique monétaire. La conclusion principale est que bien qu'il y ait un certain nombre de différences dans l'impact estimé des prix à l'importation des produits de base et des taux de change sur l'inflation domestique et dans leurs dynamiques, lesquels ont pu contribuer aux différences d’orientation des politiques monétaires durant la phase de boom des cours des matières premières, ces différences ne peuvent pas tout expliquer.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Vogel & Elena Rusticelli & Pete Richardson & Stéphanie Guichard & Christian Gianella, 2009. "Inflation Responses to Recent Shocks: Do G7 Countries Behave Differently?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 689, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:689-en
    DOI: 10.1787/225018287428
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    2. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    3. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
    4. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
    5. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.
    6. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; courbe de Phillips; coût de transition; DSGE model; error-correction model; import prices; inflation; modèle DSGE; modèles à correction d’erreurs; Phillips curve; prix des importations; prix des matières premières;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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