IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/681-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Achieving Fiscal Flexibility and Safeguarding Sustainability: The Case of Slovakia

Author

Listed:
  • Isabell Koske

    (OECD)

Abstract

Euro area entry calls for more fiscal flexibility to absorb cyclical shocks that cannot be dealt with by the common monetary policy. At the same time fiscal consolidation must not be put at risk, especially given rising ageing related costs. The current fiscal framework could be improved by introducing multi-year expenditure ceilings and by removing pro-cyclical elements in fiscal rules. An adjustment account that serves to register breaches of fiscal rules and eliminates them over time could help in coping with projection errors. To ensure long-term sustainability of public finances it is essential not to dilute the substantial improvements in the long-term balance of the definedbenefit pillar associated with past pension reforms. The government should consider making participation in the defined contribution pillar mandatory for new labour market entrants or, at the very least, make it the default option. For current workers the pillars should remain closed. Moreover, further parametric changes such as increasing the retirement age in line with life expectancy gains and reducing unsustainable elements in the pension formula would improve the balance of the defined benefit pillar. Introduire plus de flexibilité budgétaire et préserver la viabilité des finances publiques - le cas de la Slovaquie L’entrée dans la zone euro exige plus de flexibilité budgétaire pour absorber les chocs cycliques auxquels ne peut remédier la politique monétaire commune. Mais, dans le même temps, il ne faut pas compromettre l’assainissement budgétaire, surtout avec l’augmentation des dépenses liée au vieillissement. On pourrait améliorer le cadre budgétaire actuel en introduisant des plafonds pluriannuels de dépenses et en mettant fin aux éléments procycliques des règles de politique budgétaire. Un compte d’ajustement enregistrant les écarts par rapport aux règles de politique budgétaire et les éliminant à terme pourrait être utile pour corriger les erreurs de prévision. Pour assurer la viabilité à long terme des finances publiques, il est indispensable de ne pas remettre en cause la nette amélioration à long terme de l’équilibre du régime de retraite à prestations définies, rendue possible par les réformes antérieures. Le gouvernement devrait envisager une participation obligatoire des nouveaux entrants sur le marché du travail au régime à cotisations définies ou, au moins, faire en sorte que ce régime soit l’option par défaut. Il ne faudrait pas que les travailleurs actuels puissent changer de régime. De plus, de nouveaux ajustements paramétriques - notamment le relèvement de l’âge de la retraite en fonction de l’allongement de l’espérance de vie et la correction d’un certain nombre d’éléments non viables de la formule de calcul des retraites - amélioreraient l’équilibre du régime à prestations définies.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabell Koske, 2009. "Achieving Fiscal Flexibility and Safeguarding Sustainability: The Case of Slovakia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 681, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:681-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/226231818862
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    5. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 484-499.
    6. Christopher J. Erceg, 2002. "The Choice of an Inflation Target Range in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 85-89, May.
    7. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
    8. Alvaroriascos & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2004. "Sobre Los Efectos Dela Politica Monetaria Encolombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(45), pages 172-221, June.
    9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
    10. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    13. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 95-131, April.
    14. Catalina Delgado González, 2004. "Inversión y restricciones crediticias en Colombia en la década de los noventa," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 8-55, Diciembre.
    15. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    16. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Functions and Transmission Mechanisms: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 001-020 Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    18. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 59-74, March.
    19. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    21. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    22. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    23. Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2008. "Targets, zones, and asymmetries: a flexible nonlinear model of recent UK monetary policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 423-439, July.
    24. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Nonlinear econometric models with cointegrated and deterministically trending regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36.
    25. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y., 2003. "Index models with integrated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 73-106, May.
    26. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    27. Vittorio Corbo, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Latin America in the 90s," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 6, pages 117-166 Central Bank of Chile.
    28. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
    29. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Alejandro M. Werner, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, Credibility, and the Exchange Rate," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 31-90, January.
    30. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    31. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    32. Frederic S. Mishkin & Niklas J. Westelius, 2008. "Inflation Band Targeting and Optimal Inflation Contracts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 557-582, June.
    33. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    34. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    35. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, July.
    36. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    37. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    38. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, March.
    39. Frédérique Savignac, 2006. "The impact of financial constraints on innovation : evidence from French manufacturing firms," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115717, HAL.
    40. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
    41. Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 301-340, April.
    42. Alvaroriascos & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2004. "Sobre Los Efectos Dela Politica Monetaria Encolombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(45), pages 172-221, June.
    43. In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
    44. Breitung, Jorg, 2001. "Rank Tests for Nonlinear Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 331-340, July.
    45. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    46. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    47. Bruinshoofd, Allard & Candelon, Bertrand, 2005. "Nonlinear monetary policy in Europe: fact or myth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 399-403, March.
    48. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    49. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
    50. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    51. Cukierman Alex & Muscatelli Anton, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, February.
    52. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    53. Tachibana, Minoru, 2008. "Inflation zone targeting and the Federal Reserve," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 68-84, March.
    54. Tachibana, Minoru, 2006. "Did the Bank of Japan have a target zone for the inflation rate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 131-136, July.
    55. Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1671-1690, December.
    56. Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Modelling Nonlinear Relationships between Extended-Memory Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 265-279, March.
    57. Choi, In & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Tests For Nonlinear Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 682-709, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Klein, Caroline & Price, Robert & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "Slovakia: A Catching Up Euro Area Member In and Out of the Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 55, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2014. "Euro Membership, Foreign Banks And Credit Developments During The Financial Crisis In Slovakia: A Case Study," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra Provider-Homepage: http://www.roaae.org;Association of Agricultural Economists in Slovakia (APES), vol. 17(1).
    3. repec:ags:aoeisl:170471 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cadre budgétaire; fiscal rules; fiscal sustainability; pension system; République slovaque; Slovak Republic; système de retraite; viabilité budgétaire;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:681-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.