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The Macro Management of Commodity Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Rolando Avendaño

    (OECD)

  • Helmut Reisen

    (OECD)

  • Javier Santiso

    (OECD)

Abstract

Strong growth in China and India has led to improvements in raw-material exporting countries' terms of trade and attracted complementary finance. The long-term challenge for these countries, where institutions are often fragile, is to avoid the so-called “resource curse”. This paper aims to provide a comparative perspective between policy choices in commodity-exporting countries, contrasting the experiences of Africa and Latin America. First, it highlights global macroeconomic links between the Asian Drivers (China and India) and these regions. Second, it discusses optimal policy responses from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. Third, it presents empirical evidence on macroeconomic, particularly fiscal responses to Dutch disease and the specialisation effects caused by Asian Drivers' demand and assesses the benefits and challenges offered by the Asian Drivers from a macro perspective for both Africa and Latin America. La forte croissance enregistrée par la Chine et l'Inde a permis aux pays exportateurs de matières premières d'améliorer substantiellement leurs termes de l'échange et d'enregistrer des afflux de capitaux conséquents. A long terme, le défi pour ces pays, aux institutions souvent fragiles, sera d'éviter de tomber dans la trappe de la malédiction des matières premières. Le travail ici présenté se propose d'analyser de manière comparée les réponses en matière de politiques économiques de la part des pays qui bénéficient de cette nouvelle manne, en contrastant en particulier les expériences africaines et latino-américaines. On souligne en premier lieu les liens macro-économiques entre les locomotives asiatiques (Chine et Inde) et ces deux régions. Ensuite, on discute les réponses économiques optimales face à ce choc de demande positif. Enfin, on présente les résultats empiriques et, en particulier, les réponses macroéconomiques en matière budgétaire et commerciale des pays bénéficiaires puis on évalue les bénéfices et les défis aussi bien pour l'Afrique que pour l'Amérique latine.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando Avendaño & Helmut Reisen & Javier Santiso, 2008. "The Macro Management of Commodity Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 270, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:270-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/240356635678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert & Alexandra Tabova, 2004. "Commodity prices and debt sustainability," Department of Economics Working Papers 0404, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    4. Kevin Ross & R. Brooks & Robert Powell & Ydahlia A. Metzgen Quemarez & Doris C Ross & Mariano Cortes & Saqib Rizavi & Benoit Ketchekmen & Francesca Fornasari, 1998. "External Debt Histories of Ten Low-Income Developing Countries; Lessons from Their Experience," IMF Working Papers 98/72, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Borenzstein, Eduardo & Khan, Mohsin & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 8198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    7. Jean-Francois Brun & Gérard Chambas & Bertrand Laporte, 2001. "Stabex versus IMF compensatory financing: impact on fiscal policy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 571-581.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    9. Bennett W Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ercio Muñoz S., 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, pages 100-121.
    2. Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2010. "On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Research Department Publications 4653, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Javier Santiso, 2009. "Les fonds souverains : des acteurs clés dans la nouvelle géographie des richesses," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 315-342.
    4. Javier Santiso, 2009. "Sovereign Development Funds : Key Financial Actors of the Shifting Wealth of Nations," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 291-315.
    5. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2010. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: better after all?," Economics Discussion Papers 2010-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 5, pages 1-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; Afrique; Amérique latine; Asian drivers; boom des matières premières; commodity booms; dutch disease; Latin America; locomotives asiatiques; maladie hollandaise;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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