Transnationalism over the lifecourse of New Zealand birth citizens

This paper explores the fiscal implications of transnationalism among New Zealand-born citizens. For every calendar year between 1999 and 2024, the IDI allows us to identify how many days NZ-born citizens spend in New Zealand or elsewhere. As the lifecourse progresses, many New Zealanders choose to live elsewhere. Often this is temporary, with about 40% of NZ-born emigrants returning to live in New Zealand again, usually within a few years. But many others leave permanently. By the age of 30, 25-30% of each birth cohort is living elsewhere. Emigration of the New Zealand born represents only about a third of total emigration – the rest is emigration of the foreign-born, including foreign-born citizens of New Zealand. Emigration of the foreign-born will be considered in a future paper. Emigration of the NZ-born is most common in young adulthood - about half of those emigrating each year are in their twenties or thirties. But emigration in one’s twenties is also the most likely to be temporary. Emigration in childhood and later adulthood is more likely to be permanent. Emigration and return migration are also strongly associated with both ethnicity and qualification level, but not with gender. In general, the most highly qualified are most likely to emigrate, but also the most likely to return. This difference in emigration between people with lower and higher qualifications exists within all ethnic groups, but the difference is greatest for NZ Europeans, and smallest for Pacific peoples. Over time, emigration of successive birth cohorts has led to a substantial diaspora. We estimate that the NZ-born diaspora has grown over time to about 915,000 people, about two-thirds of whom are living in Australia. The diaspora is older than the New Zealand population, and growing older over time. NZ-born Asian and Pacific people have higher rates of diasporic membership than Māori and NZ Europeans. From a fiscal perspective, the diaspora represents both a contingent asset and a contingent liability. Return migration from the diaspora of those with overseas experience is an important source of fiscal revenue. For example in 2023, among 40-44 year-old NZ-born residents, those who had taken at least a short OE made up 35% of the residents, but paid 42% of the personal tax among this group. These figures illustrate how future Government revenues are dependent at least in part on ensuring New Zealanders who choose to pursue an OE find returning home an attractive proposition. diaspora also represents a contingent liability, to the extent that New Zealanders with rights of return also have rights to public services such as health and aged care should they choose to return. Return is uncommon later in life, suggesting that retirement back to New Zealand is rare among those who have settled elsewhere. However, rates of return increased during COVID among older and especially younger New Zealanders. This suggests that the fiscal risks of certain adverse events, especially global events, may be exacerbated if those events result in higher rates of return from the diaspora.