Incorporating lag order selection uncertainty in parameter inference for AR models
Parameter inference on autoregressive models is usually carried out conditionally on a previously selected lag order. In the majority of cases the lag order selection is carried out using information criteria and in particular the Akaike (1973), Schwarz (1978) or Hannan and Quin (1979) criteria. It is well known that the latter two criteria are consistent in lag order selection in the sense of of picking the true order of the system with probability one asymptotically. On the other hand, Akaike's criterion is known to overestimate the lag order in this sense. In this note we discuss the asymptotic distribution, of the parameter estimates without conditioning on the lag order selected.
|Date of creation:||May 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2 Dean Trench Street Smith Square London SW1P 3HE|
Web page: http://niesr.ac.uk
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library & Information Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.