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Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Iacono
  • David Levinson

    () (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the influence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a specific location. The models are estimated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their influence. We find (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some influence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Iacono & David Levinson, 2008. "Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?," Working Papers 200911, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:predictinglandusechange
    as

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179990
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xia Li, 2002. "A cellular automata model to simulate development density for urban planning," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(3), pages 431-450, May.
    2. Peter H Verburg & Jan R Ritsema van Eck & Ton C M de Nijs & Martin J Dijst & Paul Schot, 2004. "Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(1), pages 125-150, January.
    3. Tenley M Conway, 2005. "Current and future patterns of land-use change in the coastal zone of New Jersey," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 32(6), pages 877-893, November.
    4. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2007. "Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth," Working Papers 200708, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2004. "Paving New Ground," Working Papers 200509, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Mathematical models; urban growth;

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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