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Cyclical versus Secular Movements in Employment Creation and Destruction


  • Randall W. Eberts
  • Edward Montgomery


This paper offers an analysis of cyclical and secular patterns in job turnover using establishment-level data. We provide evidence from multiple data sets that show that the job turnover process is markedly different over time and across regions. Over time, we find that employment fluctuations are associated primarily with job destruction. Across regions, employment differences are associated more with job creation. Differences were found between the cyclical (within) and secular (across state) responses in job creation and destruction to output shocks. Movements in job creation and destruction were also found to be related to the types of human capital externalities or technological spillovers used to explain long-run differences in regional or national growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall W. Eberts & Edward Montgomery, 1995. "Cyclical versus Secular Movements in Employment Creation and Destruction," NBER Working Papers 5162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5162
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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. R. Jason Faberman, 2011. "The Relationship Between The Establishment Age Distribution And Urban Growth," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 450-470, August.
    2. John Francis, 2007. "Asymmetries in regional labor markets, migration and economic geography," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1), pages 125-143, March.
    3. Alan Heston, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 79-82.
    4. Petri Böckerman & Mika Maliranta, 2001. "Regional disparities in gross job and worker flows in Finland," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 84-103, Autumn.
    5. Petri Böckerman & Kari Hämäläinen & Mika Maliranta, 2004. "Sources of Job and Worker Flows: Evidence from a Panel of Regions," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 18(1), pages 105-129, March.
    6. Catherine Armington & Alicia Robb & Zoltan J Acs, 1999. "Measures Of Job Flow Dynamics In The U.S.," Working Papers 99-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. R. Jason Faberman, 2003. "Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-609, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    8. Christine M. Aumayr, 2010. "Inter- and intraindustrial Job-to-Job Flows. A Linkage Analysis of Regional Vacancy Chains in Austria," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 2(1), pages 86-109, January.
    9. Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "The evolution of regional manufacturing employment: gross job flows within and between firms and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 3, pages 35-53.
    10. R. Jason Faberman, 2006. "Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All "Recoveries" Are Created Equal," Working Papers 391, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    11. R. Jason Faberman, 2005. "What’s In a City?: Understanding the Micro-Level Employer Dynamics Underlying Urban Growth," Working Papers 386, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity


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