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Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Erling Barth
  • Maria Forthun Hoen
  • Sari Pekkala Kerr
  • William R. Kerr

Abstract

We study long-run career consequences of initial employment in an occupation that subsequently declines. Linking the 2000 Decennial Census to US administrative employment and earnings records through 2020, we follow more than 2.4 million workers. Employment in an occupation that contracts by at least 25 percent is associated with about 5 percent lower cumulative earnings despite slightly more quarters worked. The earnings differential closely matches evidence from Sweden and Norway, although employment adjustment differs. Occupational mobility is substantial but incomplete, while children’s later occupational destinations are much less tied to their household heads’ 2000 occupational-growth categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Erling Barth & Maria Forthun Hoen & Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2026. "Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in the United States," NBER Working Papers 35614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35614
    Note: CH LS PE PR
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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