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The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Cheremukhin
  • Sewon Hur
  • Ronald R. Mau
  • Karel Mertens
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Xiaoqing Zhou

Abstract

The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. We then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity. We find that the supply- and demand-side effects of the immigration surge roughly cancel out, causing a negligible response of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Cheremukhin & Sewon Hur & Ronald R. Mau & Karel Mertens & Alexander W. Richter & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2026. "The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications," NBER Working Papers 35168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35168
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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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