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Reason for Treason

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyu Fan
  • Gary Richardson
  • Zhihao Xu
  • Sicheng Zhao

Abstract

Defections during war are extreme changes in loyalty. What motivates military officers to betray their motherland and serve the invaders? Using a novel dataset of career paths for over 2,800 high-ranking (colonels and generals) Nationalist (KMT) military officers during the Second Sino-Japanese War (as part of World War II), we examine defection cases to Japanese puppet regimes. Three findings emerge. First, high-ranking KMT officers who advanced more slowly in their careers were more likely to defect; suggesting that internal organizational recognition matters. Second, officers who were underpromoted compared to their schoolmates and townsmen were more likely to defect, suggesting that peer comparison matters. Third, officers were more likely to defect when their defected peers had better career prospects in the enemy’s camp, suggesting that external recognition matters.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyu Fan & Gary Richardson & Zhihao Xu & Sicheng Zhao, 2026. "Reason for Treason," NBER Working Papers 35069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35069
    Note: DAE POL
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • M52 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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