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The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth T. Gillingham
  • Matthew Kotchen
  • James A. Levinsohn
  • Barry J. Nalebuff

Abstract

We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how changes in vehicle sales over time diverge across counties with differing shares of Democratic and Republican voters. Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22% because of substitution, and undermined California’s progress in meeting its zero-emissions vehicle target.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth T. Gillingham & Matthew Kotchen & James A. Levinsohn & Barry J. Nalebuff, 2025. "The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales," NBER Working Papers 34413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34413
    Note: EEE IO PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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