The Limited Effects of U.S. Protests

We provide systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion, political behavior, and legislative policymaking. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States from 2017 to 2022, we identify 14 protest waves that covered topics related to environmental protection, gender equality, racial issues, gun control, immigration, and national and international politics. We use Twitter data, Google search volumes, high-frequency surveys, official election results, and data on politician behavior to track the evolution of online interest, policy views, vote intentions, and policies proposed and adopted before and after the onset of each protest wave. Combining national-level event studies with difference-in-differences designs that exploit variation in local protest intensity, we find that protests generate substantial internet activity but have minimal effects on other outcomes. The Black Lives Matter protests following George Floyd’s death are a notable exception. They increased both support for the Democratic Party and legislative activity on racial issues, suggesting that transgressive contention is more impactful than contained demonstrations. Finally, protests generally do not generate political backlash unless they become violent.