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The Impact of AI and Cross-Border Data Regulation on International Trade in Digital Services: A Large Language Model

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  • Ruiqi Sun
  • Daniel Trefler

Abstract

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and of cross-border restrictions on data flows has created a host of new questions and related policy dilemmas. This paper addresses two questions: How is digital service trade shaped by (1) AI algorithms and (2) by the interplay between AI algorithms and cross-border restrictions on data flows? Answers lie in the palm of your hand: From London to Lagos, mobile app users trigger international transactions when they open AI-powered foreign apps. We have 2015-2020 usage data for the most popular 35,575 mobile apps and, to quantify the AI deployed in each of these apps, we use a large language model (LLM) to link each app to each of the app developer's AI patents. (This linkage of specific products to specific patents is a methodological innovation.) Armed with data on app usage by country, with AI deployed in each app, and with an instrument for AI (a Heckscher-Ohlin cost-shifter), we answer our two questions. (1) On average, AI causally raises an app's number of foreign users by 2.67 log points or by more than 10-fold. (2) The impact of AI on foreign users is halved if the foreign users are in a country with strong restrictions on cross-border data flows. These countries are usually autocracies. We also provide a new way of measuring AI knowledge spillovers across firms and find large spillovers. Finally, our work suggests numerous ways in which LLMs such as ChatGPT can be used in other applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiqi Sun & Daniel Trefler, 2023. "The Impact of AI and Cross-Border Data Regulation on International Trade in Digital Services: A Large Language Model," NBER Working Papers 31925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31925
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina F. Ferracane & Bernard Hoekman & Erik van der Marel & Filippo Santi, 2026. "Digital trade, data protection and the EU adequacy club," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 93(369), pages 230-259, January.
    2. Hankui Wang & Jiachen Yi & Philipp Harting, 2026. "The Heterogeneous Diffusion of AI: Individuals, Organisations, and Adoption Barriers," GREDEG Working Papers 2026-16, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Crinò, Rosario & Filomena, Mattia & Gancia, Gino, 2025. "Comparative Advantage in AI-Intensive Industries: Evidence from US Imports," CEPR Discussion Papers 19883, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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