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Lottery-Based Evaluations of Early Education Programs: Opportunities and Challenges for Building the Next Generation of Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Weiland
  • Rebecca Unterman
  • Susan Dynarski
  • Rachel Abenavoli
  • Howard Bloom
  • Breno Braga
  • Ann-Marie Faria
  • Erica H. Greenberg
  • Brian Jacob
  • Jane Arnold Lincove
  • Karen Manship
  • Meghan McCormick
  • Luke Miratrix
  • Tomás E. Monarrez
  • Pamela Morris-Perez
  • Anna Shapiro
  • Jon Valant
  • Lindsay Weixler

Abstract

Lottery-based identification strategies offer potential for generating the next generation of evidence on U.S. early education programs. Our collaborative network of five research teams applying this design in early education and methods experts has identified six challenges that need to be carefully considered in this next context: 1) available baseline covariates may not be very rich; 2) limited data on the counterfactual; 3) limited and inconsistent outcome data; 4) weakened internal validity due to attrition; 5) constrained external validity due to who competes for oversubscribed programs; and 6) difficulties answering site-level questions with child-level randomization. We offer potential solutions to these six challenges and concrete recommendations for the design of future lottery-based early education studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Weiland & Rebecca Unterman & Susan Dynarski & Rachel Abenavoli & Howard Bloom & Breno Braga & Ann-Marie Faria & Erica H. Greenberg & Brian Jacob & Jane Arnold Lincove & Karen Manship & Megha, 2023. "Lottery-Based Evaluations of Early Education Programs: Opportunities and Challenges for Building the Next Generation of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 30970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30970
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    Cited by:

    1. Randall Akee & Leah R. Clark, 2023. "Universal Preschool Lottery Admissions and Its Effects on Long-Run Earnings and Outcomes," Working Papers 23-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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