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Illegal Immigration: The Trump Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Hoekstra
  • Sandra Orozco-Aleman

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of increasingly provocative anti-immigrant politicians in both Europe and the United States. We examine whether the 2016 election of Donald Trump, who made illegal immigration and border enforcement a centerpiece of his campaign, reduced illegal immigration into the U.S. We exploit the fact the election result was widely unexpected and thus generated a large, overnight change in expected immigration policy and rhetoric. We compare migration flows before and after the election and find that while it reduced immigration among deported Mexicans and at least temporarily among Central Americans, it had no effect on the overall inflow of unauthorized Mexican workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Hoekstra & Sandra Orozco-Aleman, 2021. "Illegal Immigration: The Trump Effect," NBER Working Papers 28909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28909
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28909.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. GutiƩrrez-Romero, Roxana, 2024. "Drug trafficking fuels violence leading to mass emigration: The case of Guatemala," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Roxana Gutierrez-Romero & Nayeli Salgado, 2022. "New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement," Working Papers 108, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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