The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility

Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates from samples utilizing complete count decennial census microdata and newly collected county-level data from state health reports indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9 percent of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in women living on the farm and that fertility declined along both the intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.