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Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks

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  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Pascual Restrepo

Abstract

The standard approach to modeling inequality, building on Tinbergen's seminal work, assumes factor-augmenting technologies and technological change biased in favor of skilled workers. Though this approach has been successful in conceptualizing and documenting the race between technology and education, it is restrictive in a number of crucial respects. First, it predicts that technological improvements should increase the real wages of all workers. Second, it requires sizable productivity growth to account for realistic changes in relative wages. Third, it is silent on changes in job and task composition. We extend this framework by modeling the allocation of tasks to factors and allowing richer forms of technological changes in particular, automation that displaces workers from tasks they used to perform, and the creation of new tasks that reinstate workers into the production process. We show that factor prices depend on the set of tasks that factors perform, and that automation: (i) powerfully impacts inequality; (ii) can reduce real wages; and (iii) can generate realistic changes in inequality with small changes in productivity. New tasks, on the other hand, can increase or reduce inequality depending on whether it is skilled or unskilled workers that have a comparative advantage in these new activities. Using industry-level estimates of displacement driven by automation and reinstatement due to new tasks, we show that displacement is associated with significant increases in industry demand for skills both before 1987 and after 1987, while reinstatement reduced the demand for skills before 1987, but generated higher demand for skills after 1987. The combined effects of displacement and reinstatement after 1987 explain a significant part of the shift towards greater demand for skills in the US economy.

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  • Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks," NBER Working Papers 26681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26681
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    1. Ezra Oberfield & Devesh Raval, 2021. "Micro Data and Macro Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 703-732, March.
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    1. Pelin Ozgul & Marie-Christine Fregin & Michael Stops & Simon Janssen & Mark Levels, 2024. "High-skilled Human Workers in Non-Routine Jobs are Susceptible to AI Automation but Wage Benefits Differ between Occupations," Papers 2404.06472, arXiv.org.
    2. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    3. Toon Van Overbeke, 2023. "Conflict or cooperation? Exploring the relationship between cooperative institutions and robotisation," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 550-573, September.
    4. Claudia Fontanari & Antonella Palumbo, 2023. "Permanent scars: The effects of wages on productivity," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 351-389, May.
    5. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    6. Freeman, Richard B. & Yang, Buyuan & Zhang, Baitao, 2023. "Data deepening and nonbalanced economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    8. Attila Lindner & Balazs Murakozy & Balazs Reizer & Ragnhild Schreiner, 2022. "Firm-level technological change and skill demand," CEP Discussion Papers dp1857, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Henrik Schwabe & Fulvio Castellacci, 2020. "Automation, workers’ skills and job satisfaction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    10. Ryosuke Shimizu & Shohei Momoda, 2020. "Does Automation Technology increase Wage?," KIER Working Papers 1039, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Shimizu, Ryosuke & Momoda, Shohei, 2023. "Does automation technology increase wage?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Dedola, Luca & Ehrmann, Michael & Hoffmann, Peter & Lamo, Ana & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Slacalek, Jiri & Strasser, Georg, 2023. "Digitalisation and the economy," Working Paper Series 2809, European Central Bank.
    14. Raja Bentaouet Kattan & Kevin Macdonald & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2021. "The Role of Education in Mitigating Automation’s Effect on Wage Inequality," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(1), pages 79-104, March.
    15. Christian Gunadi & Hanbyul Ryu, 2021. "Does the rise of robotic technology make people healthier?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2047-2062, September.
    16. Ballestar, María Teresa & García-Lazaro, Aida & Sainz, Jorge & Sanz, Ismael, 2022. "Why is your company not robotic? The technology and human capital needed by firms to become robotic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 328-343.
    17. Ryosuke Shimizu & Shohei Momoda, 2021. "Does Automation Technology increase Wage?," Discussion papers ron343, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    18. Consolo, Agostino & Cette, Gilbert & Bergeaud, Antonin & Labhard, Vincent & Osbat, Chiara & Kosekova, Stanimira & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Basso, Gaetano & Basso, Henrique & Bobeica, Elena & Ciapanna, Eman, 2021. "Digitalisation: channels, impacts and implications for monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 266, European Central Bank.
    19. Jean-Philippe Deranty & Thomas Corbin, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences," Papers 2204.00419, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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