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Backtesting Strategies Based on Multiple Signals

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  • Robert Novy-Marx

Abstract

Strategies selected by combining multiple signals suffer severe overfitting biases, because underlying signals are typically signed such that each predicts positive in-sample returns. “Highly significant” backtested performance is easy to generate by selecting stocks on the basis of combinations of randomly generated signals, which by construction have no true power. This paper analyzes t-statistic distributions for multi-signal strategies, both empirically and theoretically, to determine appropriate critical values, which can be several times standard levels. Overfitting bias also severely exacerbates the multiple testing bias that arises when investigators consider more results than they present. Combining the best k out of n candidate signals yields a bias almost as large as those obtained by selecting the single best of nᵏ candidate signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Novy-Marx, 2015. "Backtesting Strategies Based on Multiple Signals," NBER Working Papers 21329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.
    2. Piotroski, JD, 2000. "Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 1-41.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduard Krkoska & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2019. "Herding in Smart-Beta Investment Products," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Dirk Paulsen & Jakob Sohl, 2016. "Noise Fit, Estimation Error and a Sharpe Information Criterion," Papers 1602.06186, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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