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Further Comments on The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

This paper addresses three issues related to the relative rates of growth in the United States, the European Union, and China during the four decades between 2000 and 2040. The first concerns the source of the factors which make it likely that China will continue to grow at a high rate for another generation. The paper argues that this growth will be the result of both favorable economic and political conditions. The second concerns the source of declining GDP growth in the original fifteen nations of the European Union. For these countries, the underlying cause is due in large measure to low fertility rates and an increase in the dependency ratio. The third issue is the projection of long-term U.S. growth in GDP at a rate of 3.7 percent per annum.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fogel, 2010. "Further Comments on The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 15721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15721
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    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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