IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0471.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expectations and the Valuation of Shares

Author

Listed:
  • Burton G. Malkiel
  • John G. Cragg

Abstract

This is a study using a unique body of expectations data collected over the decade of the 1960s. After describing the data, this paper first looks at the extent of consensus among those financial institutions providing the forecasts and measures the accuracy of the forecasts. We then ask if the forecasts are consistent with the hypothesis that tile expectations are "rational". We then turn to the relationship of the forecasts to security valuation. We develop our own variant of the popular capital asset pricing model using a framework suggested by Ross for this arbitrage model. Alternative specifications are developed relating expected returns to risk variables and relating securities prices to expectations and risk variables. We find that the expectations data of the sort we have collected do appear to influence security prices in the manner suggested by the theory. We also find that the expected security returns implied by the expectations data are related to "systematic" risk measures appropriately defined. Nevertheless, we find that, even when a variety of systematic influences are used, other risk measures, possibly related to their own variance of the securities, appear to play some role in security valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Burton G. Malkiel & John G. Cragg, 1980. "Expectations and the Valuation of Shares," NBER Working Papers 0471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0471
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Three Remarks On Asset Pricing," Papers 2105.13903, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Burton G. Malkiel, 1982. "Risk and Return: A New Look," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity in Financing U.S. Capital Formation, pages 27-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Victor Olkhov, 2022. "Market-Based Asset Price Probability," Papers 2205.07256, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Martin Feldstein & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1982. "Are High Income Individuals Better Stock Market Investors?," NBER Working Papers 0948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Burton G. Malkiel, 1981. "Risk and Return: A New Look," NBER Working Papers 0700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Shaikh, Salman, 2013. "Investment Decisions by Analysts: A Case Study of KSE," MPRA Paper 53802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Boes, M.J., 2006. "Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns," Other publications TiSEM e9ed8a9f-2472-430a-b666-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Roman Mestre, 2021. "A wavelet approach of investing behaviors and their effects on risk exposures," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, December.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David Morelli, 2002. "The robustness of tests of structural change in equity returns using factor analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 241-251.
    7. Mario Alejandro Acosta R., 2014. "Las acciones como activo de reserva para el Banco de la República," Documentos CEDE 11004, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    9. Moon K. Kim & Chunchi Wu, 1987. "Macro-Economic Factors And Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 10(2), pages 87-98, June.
    10. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2018. "The Conditional Relationship between Oil Price Risk and Return Stock Market: a Comparative Study of Advanced and Emerging Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    11. Antti J. Tanskanen & Jani Lukkarinen & Kari Vatanen, 2016. "Random selection of factors preserves the correlation structure in a linear factor model to a high degree," Papers 1604.05896, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    12. Carmen López-Martín & Sonia Benito Muela & Raquel Arguedas, 2021. "Efficiency in cryptocurrency markets: new evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 403-431, September.
    13. Algia Hammami & Ameni Ghenimi & Abdelfattah Bouri, 2015. "Relation Between Risk And Return In Tunisian’S Stock Market After The Revolution (During Political Instability)," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 6(1), December.
    14. Jian Guo & Saizhuo Wang & Lionel M. Ni & Heung-Yeung Shum, 2022. "Quant 4.0: Engineering Quantitative Investment with Automated, Explainable and Knowledge-driven Artificial Intelligence," Papers 2301.04020, arXiv.org.
    15. Raymond Kan & Guofu Zhou, 1999. "A Critique of the Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1221-1248, August.
    16. Lars Hornuf & Gül Yüksel, 2022. "The Performance of Socially Responsible Investments: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9724, CESifo.
    17. Zhou, Guofu, 1999. "Security factors as linear combinations of economic variables," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 403-432, November.
    18. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. Zhou, Guofu, 1995. "Small sample rank tests with applications to asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 71-93, March.
    20. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in commodity markets for natural resources: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.