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Oil and Gold Prices: Correlation or Causation?

Author

Listed:
  • Thai-Ha LE

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

  • Youngho CHANG

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper uses the monthly data spanning from Jan-1986 to April-2011 to investigate the relationship between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil. We examine this relationship through the inflation channel and their interaction with the index of the US dollar. We use different oil price proxies in our investigation and find that the impact of oil price on gold price is not asymmetric but non-linear. Our results show that there is a long-run relationship existing between the prices of oil and gold. Our findings imply that the oil price can be used to predict the gold price.

Suggested Citation

  • Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "Oil and Gold Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1102, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1102
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    File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2011/2011-02.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    3. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    5. Yakup Soylemez, 2021. "The causality relationship between energy prices and developed countries indices," Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 3(2), pages 24-40, April.
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Awe, Olushina O., 2017. "Time series analysis of co-movements in the prices of gold and oil: Fractional cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 117-124.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.
    8. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Owusu Junior, Peterson & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Time-varying risk analysis for commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Sahadudheen, I., 2015. "Understanding the nexus between oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 85-91.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; gold price; inflation; US dollar index; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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    1. 黃金投資 in Wikipedia Chinese

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