Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure
This paper proposes a model of the term structure with nonstationary term premia which exhibit a factor structure. This explains the common empirical finding of a cointegrating rank smaller than the one predicted by the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. An application to German interest rate data yields easily interpretable results.
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|Date of creation:||2003|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Letters 3 80(2003): pp. 409-413|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstr. 28, 80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-muenchen.de
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- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992.
"Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Structure,"
92-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
- Lucas, André, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 149-169, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1998.
"Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-083, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
- Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
- Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
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