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The Pandemic, the Stimulus, and the Future Prospects for the US Economy

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  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza analyze how the US economy was affected by the pandemic and its prospects for recovery. Their baseline simulation using the Institute's stock-flow macroeconometric model shows a significant pickup in the growth rate in 2021 as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act. The report includes two additional scenarios simulated on top of the baseline, finding that President Biden's infrastructure and families plans--whether paired with offsetting tax increases on high-earners or "deficit financed"--would have positive macroeconomic effects. Additionally, Papadimitriou, Nikiforos, and Zezza warn that if US policymakers do not prioritize decreasing the trade deficit, maintaining growth will require either continuous and very high government deficits or the private sector once again becoming a net borrower. Finally, they argue that concerns about a sharp increase in inflation spurred by the fiscal stimulus are unwarranted: the US economy was not close to full employment or full utilization of resources before the pandemic, and the propagation mechanisms that could lead to accelerating inflation are not in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2021. "The Pandemic, the Stimulus, and the Future Prospects for the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_6_21, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_6_21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Diamond & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 165-190, Fall.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031," Reports 56970, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031," Reports 57218, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "The Distribution of Household Income, 2017," Reports 56575, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_15, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    7. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2013. "Rescuing the Recovery: Prospects and Policies for the United States," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_oct_13, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Luiza Nassif-Pires & Laura de Lima Xavier & Thomas Masterson & Michalis Nikiforos & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2020. "Pandemic of Inequality," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_149, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray, 2021. "Still Flying Blind after All These Years: The Federal Reserve's Continuing Experiments with Unobservables," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_156, Levy Economics Institute.

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