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Guesstimation

Author

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  • Wojciech W. Charemza

Abstract

Macroeconomic model builders attempting to construct forecasting models frequently face constraints of data scarcity in terms of short time series of data, and also of parameter non-constancy and underspecification. Hence, a realistic alternative is often to guess rather than to estimate parameters of such models. This paper concentrates on repetitive guessing (drawing) parameters from iteratively changing distributions, with the straightforward objective function being that of minimisation of squares of ex-post prediction errors, weighted by penalty weights and subject to a learning process. The numerical Monte Carlo examples are those of a regression problem and a dynamic disequilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech W. Charemza, 1998. "Guesstimation," Discussion Papers in Economics 98/1, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Sep 1998.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:98/1
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ98-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "A smooth likelihood simulator for dynamic disequilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 257-294, June.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Wojciech Charemza
      by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 17:59:58

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolae POP & Adriana AGAPIE & Nicolae TEODORESCU, 2009. "An algorithmic approach for modelling customer expectations," Management & Marketing, Economic Publishing House, vol. 4(1), Spring.
    2. Agapie, Adriana, 2008. "Stochastic Optimization in Econometric Models – A Comparison of GA, SA and RSG," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 080825, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    3. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova , Svetlana & Kharin, Yuriy & Malugin, Vladimir & Huryn , Aliaksandr & Raskina, Julia, 2006. "On Building Economic Development Patterns for Russia and Belorussia on the Basis of LAM-3 Econometric Model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 2(2), pages 124-139.

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