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Self-Confidence and Timing of Entry


  • Tiago Pires
  • Luís Santos-Pinto


This paper analyzes the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare. To do that the paper uses an endogenous timing model where (i) players have private information about costs and (ii) one player is overconfident and the other is rational. The paper shows that for moderate levels of self-confidence there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of entering the market before the rational player. In this equilibrium self-confidence reduces the profits of the rational player but can increase the profits of the overconfident player provided that cost asymmetries are small. Finally, we show that overconfidence reduces welfare, except when cost asymmetries are very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiago Pires & Luís Santos-Pinto, 2008. "Self-Confidence and Timing of Entry," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 09.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:09.05

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Navarro, Peter, 1988. "Why Do Corporations Give to Charity?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 65-93, January.
    2. Besley, Timothy & Ghatak, Maitreesh, 2007. "Retailing public goods: The economics of corporate social responsibility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(9), pages 1645-1663, September.
    3. Constantine Manasakis & Evangelos Mitrokostas & Emmanuel Petrakis, 2007. "Corporate Social Responsibility in Oligopoly," Working Papers 0707, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. David P. Baron, 2001. "Private Politics, Corporate Social Responsibility, and Integrated Strategy," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 7-45, March.
    5. Cespa, Giovanni & Cestone, Giacinta, 2004. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Managerial Entrenchment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4648, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Brekke, Kjell Arne & Nyborg, Karine, 2008. "Attracting responsible employees: Green production as labor market screening," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 509-526, December.
    7. Giovanni Cespa & Giacinta Cestone, 2007. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Managerial Entrenchment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 741-771, September.
    8. Mark Bagnoli & Susan G. Watts, 2003. "Selling to Socially Responsible Consumers: Competition and The Private Provision of Public Goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 419-445, September.
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    More about this item


    endogenous timing; entry; overconfidence;

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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