IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kue/epaper/e-18-002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A System Dynamics Study on the Prospect of Japanese Plutonium Balance

Author

Listed:
  • Shutaro TAKEDA
  • Takeshi SAKADE
  • Hideki IWAKI

Abstract

The authors conducted a quantitative reevaluation of the short-term Japanese plutonium balance forecast until 2040 with a new numeric model, in the aim of contributing to the policy making toward the stable US-Japan alliance as well as the East Asian region. The Japanese nuclear fuel cycle was replicated as a system dynamics model on Stella with officially available statistical data. The Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the range of the capacities Japanese nuclear power plants until 2040. The simulation results showed the peak accumulation of plutonium in Japan would be observed around 2025. This indicates that while the plutonium imbalance in Japan would be a point of concern for the next five years, the situation will likely mitigate. Consequently, even if lowering the capacity of Rokkasho reprocessing plant were to be possible, it would not make a significant difference if it takes more than five years. As a result, the authors conclude that if we were to hurry the resolution of the current Japanese plutonium imbalance issues, the Japanese government has to either consider to limit the restarting of NPPs to newer plants or to cut the operation rate of Rokkasho reprocessing plant from the first year.

Suggested Citation

  • Shutaro TAKEDA & Takeshi SAKADE & Hideki IWAKI, 2018. "A System Dynamics Study on the Prospect of Japanese Plutonium Balance," Discussion papers e-18-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kue:epaper:e-18-002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dp/papers/e-18-002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pickett, Susan E., 2002. "Japan's nuclear energy policy: from firm commitment to difficult dilemma addressing growing stocks of plutonium, program delays, domestic opposition and international pressure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(15), pages 1337-1355, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suh, Jung Woo & Sohn, So Young & Lee, Bo Kyeong, 2020. "Patent clustering and network analyses to explore nuclear waste management technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Romanach, Lygia & Carr-Cornish, Simone & Muriuki, Grace, 2015. "Societal acceptance of an emerging energy technology: How is geothermal energy portrayed in Australian media?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1143-1150.
    3. Simone Carr-Cornish & Peta Ashworth & John Gardner & Stephen Fraser, 2011. "Exploring the orientations which characterise the likely public acceptance of low emission energy technologies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 549-565, August.
    4. Byoung Joon Kim & Seoyong Kim & Youngcheoul Kang & Sohee Kim, 2022. "Searching for the New Behavioral Model in Energy Transition Age: Analyzing the Forward and Reverse Causal Relationships between Belief, Attitude, and Behavior in Nuclear Policy across Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-24, June.
    5. Hobman, Elizabeth V. & Ashworth, Peta, 2013. "Public support for energy sources and related technologies: The impact of simple information provision," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 862-869.
    6. Shackley, Simon & Mander, Sarah & Reiche, Alexander, 2006. "Public perceptions of underground coal gasification in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3423-3433, December.
    7. Iyer, Gokul & Hultman, Nathan & Eom, Jiyong & McJeon, Haewon & Patel, Pralit & Clarke, Leon, 2015. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 103-118.
    8. Simone Carr-Cornish & Lygia Romanach, 2014. "Differences in Public Perceptions of Geothermal Energy Technology in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Mori, Akihisa, 2019. "Temporal dynamics of infrasystem transition: The case of electricity system transition in Japan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 186-194.
    10. van Alphen, Klaas & van Voorst tot Voorst, Quirine & Hekkert, Marko P. & Smits, Ruud E.H.M., 2007. "Societal acceptance of carbon capture and storage technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4368-4380, August.
    11. Kato, Takaaki & Takahara, Shogo & Nishikawa, Masashi & Homma, Toshimitsu, 2013. "A case study of economic incentives and local citizens' attitudes toward hosting a nuclear power plant in Japan: Impacts of the Fukushima accident," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 808-818.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kue:epaper:e-18-002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Graduate School of Economics Project Center (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fekyojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.