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Do Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in the Long Run? - An Example of Likelihood in a Multivariate Time-Series Model

Author

Listed:
  • : Katarina Juselius

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

The long-run foreign transmission effects are analyzed in a multivariate time-series model of Danish and German prices, exchange rates and interest rates. The analysis of the likelihood function reveals that the vector process is I(2), but that a linear transformation of the prices and the nomical exchange rate removes the I(2) trend from the data. A structural representation of the full cointegration space is found to facilitate the understanding of the interaction between the goods and the capital market and hence the mechanisms behind the inflationary effects transmitted from abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • : Katarina Juselius, 1993. "Do Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in the Long Run? - An Example of Likelihood in a Multivariate Time-Series Model," Discussion Papers 93-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9314
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dolado, Juan J. & Marmol, Francesc, 1997. "On the properties of the Dickey-Pantula test against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-16, November.
    2. Strauß, Hubert, 2002. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Aggregate Exports: Empirical Evidence for the United States, Canada, and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1101, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR model; cointegration; purchasing power parity; uncovered interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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