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Exchange Rates, Non-Traded Goods and the Terms-of-Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand


  • Eric Hansen
  • Michael M. Hutchison


This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasise the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non- tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability rests and out-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on "real" determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods and terms-of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Hansen & Michael M. Hutchison, "undated". "Exchange Rates, Non-Traded Goods and the Terms-of-Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:96-11

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kala Krishna & Anne Krueger, 1995. "Implementing Free Trade Areas: Rules of Origin and Hidden Protection," NBER Working Papers 4983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lopez, Ramon E. & Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "Trade restrictions with imported intermediate inputs : When does the trade balance improve?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 329-338, November.
    3. Krueger, Anne O., 1997. "Free trade agreements versus customs unions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, October.
    4. Lopez, Ramon & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "On the Theory of Piecemeal Tariff Reform: The Case of Pure Imported Intermediate Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 615-625, June.
    5. Carsten Kowalczyk, 1990. "Welfare and Customs Unions," NBER Working Papers 3476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Economics Department, 1995. "Recent Reserve Bank research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 58, September.
    2. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, March.

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