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Counterintuitive facts regarding household saving in China: the saving glut


  • Kevin Luo

    () (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Tomoko Kinugasa

    () (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)


This study begins by confirming that China has been in a state of overaccumulation over the past decade. Against this backdrop, we empirically investigate the underlying determinants of Chinese household saving, and present both intuitive and distinct insights. Considering that overaccumulation has become a major threat to China's economic performance, we find that certain policies and phenomena, which are usually regarded as positive factors (e.g., the SOE reform), are primarily responsible for China's excess saving, and those usually deemed to be negative factors (e.g., the real estate bubble), have essentially mitigated the surplus saving.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Luo & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2018. "Counterintuitive facts regarding household saving in China: the saving glut," Discussion Papers 1815, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1815

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    China; Household saving; Over-accumulation; GMM estimator; Policy design;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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