The Cost of Job Loss for Coal Miners in Turkey

This paper estimates the labor-market costs of job displacement among coal miners in Turkey, a middle-income country where coal phase-out has not yet begun but may become increasingly relevant under decarbonization pressures. Using linked employer–employee administrative data, we identify displaced workers through mass layoffs and estimate event-study models with propensity score matching. We document large and persistent earnings losses. Among workers returning to registered employment, real monthly earnings fall by about 25 percent immediately after displacement and daily wages decline by 11–14 percent. Workers returning to coal experience virtually no persistent wage penalty, whereas those switching to non-coal sectors face lasting daily-wage losses of about 18 percent. Losses are largest for core underground miners, longer-tenured workers, and workers with longer non-employment spells. Over five years, the present discounted value of earnings losses equals roughly one year of pre-displacement earnings. Although the aggregate burden appears manageable at the national level, it is highly concentrated in coal-dependent regions, underscoring the importance of place-based just-transition policies.