The effect of rising energy and consumer prices on household finances, poverty and social exclusion in the EU

This report contains an empirical analysis based on microdata from European household surveys to provide a preliminary assessment of the potential social consequences of increasing energy and consumer prices in the EU. It uses detailed information on recent price developments and the structure of household expenditures to quantify the extent of living cost increases and purchasing power losses in a granular and customised manner across different household types and income groups in the EU. The Report is also the first attempt to calculate the potential effects of rising prices on indicators of material and social deprivation and measures of absolute poverty. It finds that, since early 2021, inflation is predicted to have increased material and social deprivation in the EU by about 2 percentage points on average, while the corresponding increase in absolute poverty may be closer to 5 percentage points. The adverse social effects of inflation are significantly larger in many Central and Eastern European Member States, especially among disadvantaged and/or vulnerable groups. This is likely to further deepen existing gaps in poverty and social exclusion between EU15 and non-EU15 countries, and calls for a strong and coordinated policy response.