The Great Moderation and the Decoupling of Monetary Policy from Long-Term Rates in the U.S. and Germany
We apply the asymmetric ARDL model advanced by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2009) to the analysis of the patterns of pass-through from policy-controlled interest rates to a variety of longer-term rates in the U.S. and Germany. Our results reveal three main phenomena. Firstly, while the e®ect of a rate hike is largely con¯ned to the short-run, the e®ect of a rate cut is muted in the short-run but non-negligible at longer horizons. We characterise this pattern as a switch from short-run positive asymmetry to long-run negative asymmetry, a pattern that potentially reconciles the con°icting empirical evidence and theoretical conjectures that dominate the existing literature. Secondly, our results con¯rm that there has been a decoupling of long-term rates from policy-controlled rates during the period of the Great Moderation in both the U.S. and Germany, albeit in a complex and nonlinear way. Thirdly, by replicating Taylor's (2007) counterfactual exercise using our asymmetric models, we ¯nd that Taylor over-estimates the importance of policy-controlled rates for the broader economy. Equivalently, our results do not support Greenspan's belief that the decoupling is a recent phenomenon. In light of our findings, we conclude that a narrow focus on the interest rate as the sole instrument of monetary policy is likely to be sub-optimal under current institutional arrangements.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hans-Böckler-Straße 39, 40476 Düsseldorf|
Phone: +49 211 7778 234
Fax: +49 211 7778 4234
Web page: http://www.imk-boeckler.de
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:15-2010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Nemitz)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.