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Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Etienne Espagne
  • William Oman
  • Jean-François Mercure
  • Romain Svartzman
  • Ulrich Volz
  • Hector Pollitt
  • Gregor Semieniuk
  • Emanuele Campiglio

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Espagne & William Oman & Jean-François Mercure & Romain Svartzman & Ulrich Volz & Hector Pollitt & Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio, 2023. "Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition," IMF Working Papers 2023/184, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/184
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    Keywords

    Climate change; transition risks; cross-border risks; trade; international money and finance.; asset purchase; energy export; baseline export; baseline GDP; cost of capital; Non-renewable resources; Climate policy; Exports; Global;
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