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Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features

Author

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  • Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre
  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan

Abstract

To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2021. "Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features," IMF Working Papers 2021/181, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/181
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    Cited by:

    1. Swarnali Ahmed Hannan & Keiko Honjo & Mehdi Raiss, 2022. "Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 175-190.
    2. Philip Barrett & Sonali Das & Giacomo Magistretti & Evgenia Pugacheva & Philippe Wingender, 2023. "Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 227-242, April.

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