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Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Preference Erosion

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  • Mr. Paul Cashin
  • Mr. Montfort Mlachila
  • Cleary Haines

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of the erosion of trade preferences, with a focus on the export of Caribbean bananas to Europe. Estimates are made of the magnitude of implicit assistance provided over a period of three decades to eastern Caribbean countries through banana trade preferences. The value of such assistance rose until the early 1990s, and has declined precipitously since then. Using vector autoregressive analysis, the paper finds that changes in the level of implicit assistance have had a considerable macroeconomic impact, especially on Caribbean real GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Cleary Haines, 2010. "Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Preference Erosion," IMF Working Papers 2010/059, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Ataman Aksoy & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7464, December.
    2. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889, December.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/096, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
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    3. Espinoza, Raphael & Prasad, Ananthakrishnan & Williams, Oral, 2011. "Regional financial integration in the GCC," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 354-370.
    4. Ms. Nita Thacker & Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Mr. Roberto Perrelli, 2012. "Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective: The Role of Tourism and Size," IMF Working Papers 2012/235, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Goohoon Kwon & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2009. "Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data," IMF Working Papers 2009/139, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Samuel Bazzi & Christopher Blattman, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-38, October.

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