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Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: The Case of Mexico in 1994/95

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker
  • Mr. Anthony J. Richards
  • Mr. Gaston Gelos

Abstract

Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. Although interest rates fail to show a clear confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation increased continuously. The methodology presented is relevant beyond the Mexican case: sectoral differences in stock market performance may constitute valuable leading indicators of exchange rate changes in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker & Mr. Anthony J. Richards & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2000. "Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: The Case of Mexico in 1994/95," IMF Working Papers 2000/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/028
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan & D'Rosario, Michael, 2011. "Share price clustering in Mexico," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 113-119, April.
    2. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Regime linkages between the Mexican currency market and emerging equity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-125, January.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    4. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.

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