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Shock Versus Gradualism in Models of Rational Expectations: The Case of Trade Liberalization

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  • Mr. Leonardo Auernheimer
  • Ms. Susan M George

Abstract

This paper provides a new argument for “shock” versus “gradualism” in the implementation of trade policies. In the simple context of a small open economy with rational expectations, we consider the comparative welfare effects of eliminating an import tariff either immediately as an unanticipated shock, or gradually over a preannounced length of time. The gradualist policy introduces a distortion in consumption-accumulation decisions and generates welfare costs. And if the gradual change is extended over “too long” a period, these costs may exceed the long-run benefits of liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Leonardo Auernheimer & Ms. Susan M George, 1997. "Shock Versus Gradualism in Models of Rational Expectations: The Case of Trade Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 1997/122, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/122
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    Cited by:

    1. Bent, Peter H., 2020. "Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, 2002. "Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment: A Case for Gradualism," IMF Working Papers 2002/050, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Elshennawy, Abeer, 2025. "Anticipated trade policy: New insights from an intertemporal general equilibrium model for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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